Well, well, well — if it isn’t another record day at the pump. Phil Rosen here. 

Global oil markets are reeling, supply shortages are no secret, and summer driving season is upon us. And it turns out that OPEC can’t really do much about it. 

Let’s get started. 

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1. How high will oil need to go to trigger a recession? A daunting question, sure, but DataTrek analysts say there’s a correct answer: “We still believe $140/barrel is the level to watch as a recession indicator.”

Wall Street says that grim milestone is nearly upon us with both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America predicting $140 a barrel for international and US prices.

What’s more, the UAE’s energy minister said Wednesday prices are nowhere near their peak with China’s economy set to reopen soon.

Even though OPEC+ announced a production boost just a week ago, oil prices have shot above $123 this week and experts say there’s nothing the cartel can do to bring them lower. 

“The market is questioning whether OPEC countries can actually meet the call for higher production,” a portfolio manager told me yesterday. 

Think back to Econ 101: There’s a serious supply problem, which means prices can only turn lower if something changes on the demand side. 

Here’s how a top oil analyst explained it: “We have Russian barrels coming off the market, OPEC struggling to increase production, the US unable to increase production — if the supply side is unable to help bring prices down, we have to look to demand.”

(Listen to me talk about oil markets on today’s episode of The Refresh from Insider.)

2. US stock futures edged higher early Thursday, ahead of weekly jobless data and before Friday’s key read on consumer inflation. Meanwhile, Europe is braced for the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy meeting. Here are the latest market moves.

3. On deck today: Bilibili Inc, Comtech Telecommunications, and Docusign, all reporting. Plus, look out for the ECB’s monetary policy decision statement at 6:45 am ET. 

4. US stocks have rarely been this cheap, and investors should buy these high-quality companies that became bargains …read more

Source:: Business Insider


Opening Bell: Oil prices are only going up

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